Countdown to 2016 (and some links)
No, I'm not going to do predictions for 2016.
Here's something a little easier—some things
that can't happen.
Adtech will beat ad blocking by cleaning up its act.
This is clearly not going to happen, because the subject of the
sentence is a group of companies, and companies don't
act in the group's interest. Some companies will
always try to get away with pushing the boundaries a
little, and when it comes to cutting back on the bad
we as an industry means Someone
Else Do It.
Matt Sweeney at Xaxis
fewer, more relevant, high-quality ads. Now,
when an adtech dude says
relevant, he means
whatever my company does. Are there going
to be fewer Xaxis ads? Well, no, just fewer of
the other guys'. Now multiply by all the other
adtech firms. Everybody's got the
ads that will displace all the others...right?
Tom Hespos suggested self-regulation
of ads that "creep out" users, back in
But it didn't work then, and can't work now. Users
don't only visit web sites that participate in
self-regulation. People have to set up their personal
security tools to deal with the worst sites they
encounter. After all, most email marketers don't
but users still need spam filters.
Reputable publishers will pay Adblock Plus 30 percent for whitelisting.
Newsroom staffs are
everyone is stuck writing desperate clickbait because
there's no time or travel budget for an enterprise
story, stock photos are everywhere—and
AdBlock Plus wants 30 percent off the
Really? 30 percent for maintaining a relatively
simple tool that other free software
who don't run an "Acceptable Ads"
can do better?
In the news business, publishers sometimes have to
face down government agencies, powerful corporations,
and organized crime to be any good at their jobs. Adblock Plus doesn't even rate.
The creepiest trackers are all in on "Acceptable
but responsible publishers are too forward-thinking
(and too squeezed for cash) to cough up.
User targeting will turn out to be where the money is.
The more we learn about web ads, the more we
learn that Bob Hoffman had a point. The web
is a much better yellow pages and a much worse
Marty Swant: Google Says Search Intent
Matters More for Marketers Than Users'
Yes, Google is talking up search,
where it rules, at the expense of creepy
where it doesn't, but Google does have
a substantial investment in user targeting,
In 2006, Jakob Nielsen pointed out
Search engines extract too much of the Web's
because of how well the
much better yellow pages
model works. People have put a lot of time and
money since then into chasing
Holy Grails of putting the right ad in front of the
right person at the right time. But while each
individual user-targeting trick creates a brief
"pop", the long-term trend is a general Peak
Advertising effect for targeted
web ads, while search holds its value.
Adtech will make bank while publishers starve.
Yes, publishers are failing to replace print revenue
with web and mobile. (Largely because of bad decisions
long ago. Ben Brooks: They Never Even Tried For
But adtech isn't winning at
publishers' expense. Sarah Sluis:
With No Exit In Sight, Ad Tech Gets Lean Through
Michael Eisenberg got this
Some of these adtech companies are venture backed and
others are bootstrapped. In my opinion, the VC-backed
ones will struggle to deliver their engineers much of
a return. In fact, adtech is a value trap and is the
farthest thing from easy money at scale.
Adtech can capture value, but not create it—the
more effectively that user targeting works, the more
of the signaling value of advertising gets lost.
Adtech will make progress against fraud.
easy money at scale is on the fraud side. A good
recent example is Ponmocup – A giant hiding in the
How bad is it? Bad enough that the IAB puts the
of the fraud ratio in separate press releases.
Fortunately, I have a calculator. $8.2 billion in
fraud divided by $15 billion in quarterly revenue
(times 4 because the bottom part of the fraction is
by quarter and the top is by year) and that's about
14 percent fraud.
I still think the 14% is on the low side.
If you look at the level of access that
malware has, the amount of malware out
there, and the complexity of some of the attribution
models that brand advertisers are using, it's pretty likely that sophisticated
malware is able to avoid conversion-rate-based
and free ride on real transactions. A user clicks on
a search ad, and the attribution model gives some of
the credit to a malware-generated impression delivered
earlier to the same user's device.
Are attribution models developed with too much
wishful thinking about the merits of user targeting,
and not enough awareness of potential fraud attacks?
We're going to find out.
All right, bonus link time. You probably saw
these when they made the rounds earlier, but just in case
you're a search engine bot looking for URLs to mark as
important, check these out. (More links on the
linklog feed for all
you RSS fans.) Happy New Year and stuff.
MediaBriefing Analysis: Emily Bell: How "the great reintermediation of the web" caused publishers to lose control of distribution
Minda Smiley: US programmatic ad revenue totaled more than $10bn last year
Baekdal Plus: What's This About Editorial Independence? Aren't We A Team?
eaon pritchard: the brains of millennials are (not) being rewired by the internet
Alison Millington: How brands could use artificial intelligence to create ‘self-writing’ ad campaigns
The Verge's web sucks
(via The Digital Reader)
Martin Bryant: Imagine a world where news sites drop display ads. It might not be that far away
Troy Hunt: How I got XSS’d by my ad network
Kate Kaye: Do Not Track Is Finally Coming, but not as Originally Planned
Sell! Sell!: Nine Ways To Improve An Ad
Oleg Dulin: Big Data Should Be Used To Make Ads More Relevant
Doc Searls: What am I doing here?
Help Net Security: Most malvertising attacks are hosted on news and entertainment websites
Nate Hoffelder: The Adblocking Revolution Is Not Months Away – It’s Happening Right Now
craigs: The Demise of Online Advertising As We Know it
Tim Peterson: What You Should Know About Yahoo's Malvertising Attack
Felix Salmon: Relax, blocking mobile ads won’t kill publishers
Google Chrome Blog: Protecting users from deceptive inline installation
Ben Woods: EFF’s Privacy Badger extension is finally ready to block ‘super-cookies’
Barry Levine: The digital ad business is broken, says former Forbes.com CEO
Ricardo Bilton: What would Kant do? Ad blocking is a problem, but it’s ethical
Cory Doctorow: Why privacy activists and economists should be on the same side
Bloomberg News: Thousands of apps secretly run ads that consumers never see
Neil Charles: Adblocking could be the saviour of high quality journalism
(via Doc Searls Weblog » Doc Searls Weblog »)
Martha De Laurentiis: Marketers: Stop Advertising on Pirate Sites
Baekdal Plus: Publishers, Privacy is as Important For You as it is For Your Readers
Nick Bilogorskiy: Huffington Post serves malvertising, again.
Felicia Greiff: 2016 Election Digital Ad Spending Will Break $1 Billion
Pat LaPointe: How to Reach Consumers in Their 'Content Cocoons'
MediaPost | RTB Insider: Are Publishers Trying To Juggle Too Much Ad Tech?
John Naughton: Is this really the beginning of the end for web ads?
Scott Valentine: Analyze this: mobile, adtech, and big data analytics vendors fail to engage marketers
Jean-Louis Gassée: Life After Content Blocking
eaon pritchard: digital advertising. where did it all go wrong?
Mathew Ingram: Dear ad industry: Suing ad blockers and cutting off readers is not a great strategy
Ben: Ad Blocking Benchmarks for Digital Publishers
Paul Ellenbogen: Ancestry.com can use your DNA to target ads
Noah Davis: If You Don't Click on This Story, I Don't Get Paid
(via The Awl)
Paul Sawers: After selling his company to Google, this man now wants to block ad-blockers
AdExchanger: Ad Blocking Will Keep Growing Until We Make Ads Better
Garett Sloane: Inside Verizon’s plan to seal off its data (and conquer advertising)
Casey Johnston: Welcome to the Block Party
Kashmir Hill: I created a fake business and bought it an amazing online reputation
Alex Dixie: Technology Alone Does Not Make Great Advertising
Matthew Yglesias: The ad blocking controversy, explained
(via Nieman Lab and Tom Lee)
lukel: Why Safari Content Blockers beat standard adblocking
Justin Krause: The Web-Tracking Tipping Point
Brad Frost: Living with Bullshit
SysAdmin1138: Paying for the web
devin: What we break when we fix for Ad Blocking | tonyhaile.com
(via Fortress of Doors)
Leli: ad blocking "controversy" aka foolishness
Lars Doucet: Ad Blockers and the Four Currencies
Johnny Ryan: Advertising 2.0: why publishers must lead
The Uptake: Ad Blocking and the Who US?? Mentality
Samantha Bielefeld: Ad Nauseam
DCN: You say you ignore the banners but they never ignore you.
Yieldbot: Exploding the Lie that People Hate Ads
Adzerk Joins EFF's "Do Not Track" Coalition, Becomes First Online Advertising Company to Adopt New Privacy Standard
Lara O'Reilly: Goldman Sachs: Online advertising is about to be 'fundamentally restructured' by Apple, Google, and Facebook (GOOG, FB, AAPL, CRTO, ORCL)
Doc Searls: Beyond ad blocking — the biggest boycott in human history
(via Digital Content Next)
jbat: It’s Time to Flip the Bit on Publishing and Data
Massimo: Implied Contract
DCN: Dear Abby: I don’t mind advertising but I do mind tracking. What do I do?
(via Baekdal Plus)
Baekdal Plus: The Blocking Problem
Karl Fogel: Privacy is an ecological concept, not a transactional one.
Baekdal Plus: When Tracking Goes Wrong
Dave Townsend: Delivering Firefox features faster
Cory Doctorow: How to save online advertising
(via John Battelle's Search Blog)
Walt Mossberg: Mossberg: The Real Trouble With Web Ads
BOB HOFFMAN: The Whining Of The Online Ad Industry
Cog Blog: Building Trust and Belief in Online Advertising
Kashmir Hill: Facebook will now be able to show you ads based on the porn you watch
News: Consumers don’t like video ads targeted using their browsing history
BlockAdBlock: AdBlock’s “Acceptable Ads” will fail. Adblock users want no ads at all.
Massimo: A new web ads business that works
Greg Baker: HP gives up against Amazon
(via IFOST Blog)
Doc Searls: How #adblocking matures from #NoAds to #SafeAds
Justin Ellis: What’s actually working in digital advertising? 8 publishers on how they’re bringing in money
admin: Can inaction be a viable ad blocking strategy for publishers?
Dan Goodin: Unpatched browser weaknesses can be exploited to track millions of Web users
(via discrete blogarithm)
Kaiser Fung: Why Fraudulent Ad Networks Continue to Thrive
Martin Weigel: The fracking of attention
Brad Smith: The collapse of the US-EU Safe Harbor: Solving the new privacy Rubik’s Cube
Cog Blog: Sir Martin Sorrell Moves the Needle
MediaPost | RTB Insider: Is Programmatic Being Used By Big Agencies To Bash The Independents?
BlockAdBlock: The “Acceptable Ads” scheme is completely absurd
Chris Larsen: Malvertising Campaign Hitting Big Name Sites
David Barton: Ad Dodgers through the Ages
Kevin: CISO View: on Enforcing Ad Blocking
Hayley Tsukayama: The newest version of Firefox lets you block online trackers
Ryan Tate: What The Intercept’s New Audience Measurement System Means for Reader Privacy
(via Idea Lab)
Aaker on Brands: Is Big Data Killing Your Brand?
Simon Davies: Why the idea of consent for data processing is becoming meaningless and dangerous
News: Xaxis Brings Programmatic to Political Advertising with Xaxis Politics
Dan Goodin: User data plundering by Android and iOS apps is as rampant as you suspected
Michael Bentley: Lookout discovers new trojanized adware; 20K popular apps caught in the crossfire
martinbalfanz: Why "Ad Blockers" Are Also Changing the Game for SaaS and Web Developers - Snipcart
Dan LaBelle: Using HubSpot? Ad Blockers Are Costing You Leads
John West: Death by a thousand likes: how Facebook and Twitter are killing the open web
BOB HOFFMAN: The Glorious Revolution Continues
Dan Goodin: Beware of ads that use inaudible sound to link your phone, TV, tablet, and PC
Simon St. Laurent: Blocked!
Idle Words: The Advertising Bubble
Chase Hoffberger: The new kings of YouTube botting
Lauren Johnson, Christopher Heine: We Brought Together the Major Players in the Ad Blocker War, and Here's What They Told Each Other
Ricardo Bilton: Venture capital gives ad tech the cold shoulder
Tim Peterson: Facebook to Tell Brands More About Who's Near Their Stores, Tailor Ads to Them
Frédéric Filloux: Ad Blockers Will Change How Ads Are Sold
Marketing Magazine Home RSS Feed: Adblockalypse now: we need a consumer/advertiser treaty
iMedia Connection: All Feed: Look-alike targeting's new frontier
Melissa Yeager: As campaign ads move online, the public gets left in the dark
Fatemeh Khatibloo: Consumer Privacy Attitudes: A 2015 Update
Kenneth P. Vogel: The Koch intelligence agency
Josh Stearns: Why Journalists Need to Stand Up for Reader Privacy
Lara O'Reilly: One of the few female ad tech CEOs explains why there may be so few women in ad tech (GOOG, GOOGL)
Judy Shapiro: News Flash: Ad-Blocking Is Not Marketing's Fault
James Green: Dear Publishers: Yes, Ad-Tech Companies Are Partly to Blame for Bad Advertising
Alexander J Martin: Video malvertising campaign lasted 12 hours? Try two months
AdExchanger: Publishers: Who Controls The User Experience On Your Website – You Or Your Advertisers?
Adam Roach: Better Living through Tracking Protection
Rahil Bhagat: Google Chrome update can drop data consumption by 70 percent - CNET
eaon pritchard: to brand or not to brand? is that a question?
Fatemeh Khatibloo: Understanding "Creepiness"
BOB HOFFMAN: Blair Witch, Zappos, Oreo, & Ice Bucket
Feeding the Cloud: Tweaking Cookies For Privacy in Firefox
Richard: The state of digital advertising right now
Massimo: Digital Doesn’t Matter
Madeline Welsh, Joseph Lichterman, and Shan Wang: The mobile adblocking apocalypse hasn’t arrived (at least not yet)
Harry Davies: Ted Cruz campaign using firm that harvested data on millions of unwitting Facebook users
(via The Conversation)
Johnny Ryan: Despite the hype ISP adblocking is a no-go in Europe
Tim Peterson: Q&A;: Why Firefox Maker Mozilla Launched an App That Blocks Ads
Lara O'Reilly: The online advertising industry is about to be severely disrupted — 'It's the amputation of a significant revenue stream'
Jascha Kaykas-Wolff: Visualizing the Invisible
Shane Goldmacher: Inside the 2016 black market for donor emails
Basil Simon: Love thy reader, securely
Bill Budington: Panopticlick 2.0 Launches, Featuring New Tracker Protection and Fingerprinting Tests
Kevin Drum: Don't Blame Ted Cruz for Facebook's Sins
Syndicated 2015-12-31 15:42:56 from Don Marti